How to Use Our EV Calculator
Our EV calculator tells you whether a bet has a mathematical edge over the sportsbook. Enter the odds and your estimated win probability — the calculator instantly shows if the bet is +EV or -EV and by how much.
EV Calculator Examples
Book implies 40% win prob. Your model says 45%. That 5% edge = $12.50 expected profit per $100 bet.
Book implies 52.4% win prob. You estimate 48%. You're below the break-even line — skip this bet.
How to Find +EV Bets
Finding +EV bets requires having a more accurate win probability estimate than the sportsbook. Here are the methods sharp bettors use:
- Line Shopping: Compare the same game across 4–5 sportsbooks. If FanDuel offers +115 and DraftKings offers +100 on the same side, FanDuel is +EV relative to the consensus.
- No-vig Fair Odds: Remove the vig from both sides of a market to get the true implied probability. If the no-vig line is -105 and a book offers +100, that's +EV.
- Sharp Line Movement: When a line moves from -3 to -4.5, it usually means sharp money landed on the favorite. Following sharp moves is a proven +EV strategy.
- Statistical Models: Build or use existing win probability models based on team performance, pace, injuries, and matchup data. If your model consistently diverges from the market line, exploit the difference.
Kelly Criterion — How Much to Bet on +EV Plays
Once you find a +EV bet, the Kelly Criterion tells you the optimal stake size to maximize bankroll growth. The formula:
Most professional bettors use Half Kelly (4.15% in the above example) to reduce variance. Never bet more than the full Kelly amount — it maximizes long-run growth but the swings can be brutal. Use the EV calculator to confirm you have edge before sizing any bet.