Question 1

What is Expected Value (EV) in sports betting?

Accepted Answer

Expected Value (EV) measures the average profit or loss you'd expect per bet over the long run. A +EV bet means you have a mathematical edge over the sportsbook — your estimated win probability is higher than the book's implied probability. -EV bets have a negative expected long-term return. Sharp bettors focus exclusively on +EV bets.

Question 2

How do I calculate Expected Value?

Accepted Answer

EV = (Win Probability × Profit if Win) - (Lose Probability × Stake). Example: +150 odds, 45% win probability, $100 stake. EV = (0.45 × $150) - (0.55 × $100) = $67.50 - $55 = +$12.50. This means you'd expect to profit $12.50 per bet on average.

Question 3

How do I estimate my win probability?

Accepted Answer

Estimating win probability is the hard part. Methods include: analyzing historical data and team stats, using advanced models (regression, machine learning), comparing lines across multiple sportsbooks (line movement indicates sharp money), and applying sports analytics databases. The more accurate your estimate, the better your EV calculations.

Question 4

What is a good edge in sports betting?

Accepted Answer

Professional sports bettors typically operate with edges of 1-5%. A 3% edge on -110 lines means your true win probability is ~55.4% vs the book's implied 52.4%. Over hundreds of bets, this edge compounds into significant profits. Edges above 10% are rare and often indicate model errors rather than true advantages.

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